New Orleans could see fewer murders within six months - Nola.com

Police initiatives have come and gone over the years, but New Orleans' murder rate has remained frustratingly high. Now, the mastermind behind the city's new murder-reduction strategy says the city could be seeing fewer bodies on the ground within a matter of months.

"We should be seeing a real difference inside six months," criminologist David Kennedy said in an interview Friday after speaking at a Loyola University symposium on lethal violence.

Kennedy's ideas are the basis for a new component of Mayor Mitch Landrieu's "NOLA for Life" murder-reduction campaign.

Kennedy, who is the director of the Center for Crime Prevention and Control at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, said the concept is simple: Law enforcement agencies should focus their efforts on the fraction --?5 percent or so -- of the population that is committing murders,?offering them incentives -- both carrots and sticks -- to change their ways.

The first step took place Thursday afternoon in an Orleans Parish courtroom.?Landrieu, Police Superintendent Ronal Serpas, U.S. Attorney Jim Letten, District Attorney Leon Cannizzaro and others met behind closed doors with 40 of the city's most violent parolees and probationers.

The officials delivered a clear message: "We know who you are. We know who your friends are. We know where you go. We know everything about you," Landrieu recited after the meeting.

A murder victim's mother implored the group to think about the pain that affects victims' families, including their own.

Also attending the meeting were social service providers, Kennedy said. They offered the ex-cons a way out of a life of violence through GED classes, vocational training and other services. About half of the group signed up for services on the spot, Kennedy said.

The bigger message, he said, is that the full weight of state and federal law enforcement is prepared to pounce on?gangs or associations at the next episode of violent gunfire.?In short, one member's misconduct will cost the entire group in the form of an onslaught of federal and state law enforcement pressure.

"The point is to make it clear that the odds have changed so people put their guns down," Kennedy told the audience at Loyola. "The point here is to reverse the peer pressure so that the group will police itself."

An inordinate share of crime can be traced to?a few people, Kennedy said. Even though gangs or criminal groups make up only a fraction of the population, they are associated with more than 75 percent of cities' serious violence,?he said.

"We need to stop stopping people for no good reason and focus on the key players," he said.

The approach calls for police to prioritize?actions against known key violent offenders, rather than focus on overall arrest rates, and in turn, reduce mass incarceration. The?model has proved successful in cities like Boston, Cincinnati and Los Angeles, Kennedy said. Although murders are up in Chicago overall, certain neighborhoods where?the program?was implemented have seen success,?he said.

"We think the violence is about money, and hardly any of it is," Kennedy said. "It's overwhelmingly about the street code."

That "street code" dictates that disrespect should be answered with violence, that groups should not fear death or prison and that there will be no "snitching." While that code drives violence in neighborhoods across America, it is "unquestionably" pervasive in New Orleans, Kennedy said.

Confronted with a?community's silence after a murder, Kennedy said, police tend to think, "Nobody's saying anything because everybody's living off drug money."?However, what really drives the "no snitching" rule is people's?lack of faith in authorities because they are used to being racially profiled and treated poorly by cops, he said.

"There is a toxic schism between the community and law enforcement," he said.

That's where, hopefully, the new federal consent decree calling for reform of the New Orleans Police Department?could boost the department's standing within the community and overcome the "street code," Kennedy said. He pointed to Los Angeles and Cincinnati as cities where sweeping police reforms aided in reducing homicide rates.

"I think if you do it right, they reinforce each other," he said.

In New Orleans, Kennedy noted, officials have shown overwhelming support for the new strategy. Even NOPD officers have been supportive of the approach.

"They're placing it as an unquestioned priority," he said. "They mean it."

Source: http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/2012/10/new_orleans_could_see_fewer_mu.html

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Pay Attention to Old School Security

Mobile security is a huge issue. Individuals and companies are given a tremendous amount of best practice advice on how to protect data. The underlying assumption ? and one that is held so deeply that it rarely is stated ? is that the lion?s share of this protection is against electronic assaults.

Reports are surfacing, however, that suggest people should also be set to protect themselves from a resurgence of theft: good old (not good as in positive, of course) physical stealing of devices. Though it seems so antiquated, it is a trend that is growing, at least according an Associated Press story posted by Fox.

The story begins with vignettes describing some thefts. The establishing paragraph follows:

These brazen incidents are part of a ubiquitous crime wave striking coast to coast. New York City Police report that more than 40 percent of all robberies now involve cell phones. And cell phone thefts in Los Angeles, which account for more than a quarter of all the city's robberies, are up 27 percent from this time a year ago, police said.

The dynamic is not a good one. On one hand, the devices themselves are far more attractive, functional and valuable than a generation ago. On the other, people store more valuable things on the devices. This includes the emotionally valuable, such as family pictures and videos, and financially sensitive data, such as banking passwords. Devices used for business of course make the thefts even more dangerous.

The story ends with details of what is being done to stem the tide. St. Louis, for instance, is considering an ordinance requiring anyone who sells a cell phone to have a secondhand dealers? license. A national database of stolen phones is set to launch late next year.

The State-Journal Register in Springfield, Ill., has a nicely done story on what apparently is the database plan referred to in the AP story. The idea is to require large wireless carriers ? the story says ?some of the largest? carriers, though no explanation of whether some will be exempt ? to create a database of phones by October 31. A cross-carrier database will be activated in mid-November 2013. In this way, stolen phones can be identified when new owners attempt to reactive them.

Local papers doing national stories always bring in a local angle. In this case, the figures on stolen phones give perspective on the depth of the problem. In the relatively small city of Springfield, 200 phones were stolen in 2010 and 2011 and 160 have been taken so far this year. Honest Abe would be aghast.

The news is full of examples of theft. Two recent random examples: A 15-year-old girl in Corpus Christi, Texas was arrested for trying to sell a stolen phone back to its owner and a man was arrested in San Francisco for stealing a phone he had borrowed. Individually, of course, these are minor crimes. But, taken all together, they represent a trend to which attention must be paid.

The bottom line is that people need to pay attention to their phones. For businesses, the trend should make remote wiping capabilities, encryption and all other best-practices procedures an even higher priority than when the only real worry was electronic thievery.

Source: http://www.itbusinessedge.com/blogs/data-and-telecom/pay-attention-to-old-school-security.html

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Can Mitt Romney sway Jewish voters with 'apology tour' quip?

By questioning President Obama's support for Israel, Mitt Romney made an appeal to Jewish voters in Monday's presidential debate. Previous Republicans have failed to make inroads.

By Ron Scherer / October 23, 2012

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney pauses in prayer as he visits the Western Wall, Judaism's holiest prayer site, during prayers marking Tisha B'Av in Jerusalem's Old City in July 2012. Tisha B'Av, a day of fasting and lament, is traditionally the date in the Jewish calendar on which the First and Second Temples were destroyed, respectively in the sixth century BC by the Babylonians and the first century AD by the Romans.

Jason Reed/Reuters/File

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Perhaps the sharpest exchange in Monday night's presidential debate signaled that, once again, Republicans hope they can peel away crucial Jewish votes from a Democratic presidential candidate. But this time, Mitt Romney appears to think he has fresh cause for optimism.

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At one point in Monday's debate, Mr. Romney accused President Obama of taking an ?apology tour? in the Middle East while not visiting Israel. Mr. Obama, visibly angry, called the charge, ?the biggest whopper that?s been told during the course of this campaign.?

Though the Jewish community is not very large ? probably not much more than 2 percent of the total American population ? the Jewish vote is important because it is significant in Florida, Nevada, as well as other crucial swing states.

Every four years, the Republicans think they will make inroads with Jewish voters in Florida, says Susan MacManus, a professor at the University of South Florida. ?And every four years it does not come to fruition.? Democrats have won at least 76 percent of the Jewish vote in every presidential contest since the Clinton administration.

But Romney's offensive against Obama Monday suggests that he is counting on two things: Not only is he a steadfast supporter of Israel (at a time when the president's commitment to Israel has been questioned), but he is also personal friends with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is trying to remain neutral.

?Historically, no Democrat has been elected to the White House with anything less than 70 percent of the Jewish vote,? says Andrew Polsky, a political scientist at Hunter College in New York and author of the book, ?Elusive Victories, the American Presidency at War.?

?What Romney is trying to do is to whittle way at the margin.?

How Romney is trying to whittle away was apparent in the debate on Monday night at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla.

In mentioning a trip Obama made to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iraq, Romney said: ?And then in those nations, and on Arabic TV, you said that America had been dismissive and derisive. You said that on occasion, America had dictated to other nations.?

?And by the way, you skipped Israel, our closest friend in the region, but you went to the other nations. And by the way, they noticed you skipped Israel,? said Romney.

Obama responded by calling it a lie. He noted that he had visited Israel four years ago.

?I didn?t take donors. I didn?t attend fundraisers. I went to Yad Vashem, the Holocaust museum there, to remind myself of the nature of evil and why our bond with Israel will be unbreakable,? he said.

Aside from raising doubts about Obama?s loyalty to Israel, Romney also was trying to score points with Christian fundamentalists, says Professor Polsky.

?Christian fundamentalists are strongly pro-Israel,? he says. ?Romney has problems stimulating his Republican base so anything where he can get a strong turnout of them on Election Day is important.?

Four years ago, Obama won 78 percent of the Jewish vote, according to the Jewish Virtual Library. However, winning the Jewish vote does not guarantee victory. Al Gore lost in 2000 while carrying 79 percent of the Jewish vote.

?Jewish voters lean Democratic, but they are not a captive group,? says Polsky, noting that other groups, such as African-Americans, vote for Democrats even more consistently, so there is little incentive for Republicans to appeal to them.

One indication that Romney has made at least some inroads: He is getting significant support from Sheldon Adelson, a casino magnate, who is the largest single donor to the Republicans. Mr. Adelson, who is politically conservative, is a supporter of Mr. Netanyahu, the leader of the conservative Likud party.

Romney has been friends with Netanyahu since the 1970s, when the two worked as consultants in Boston. They have since remained in close contact, according to press reports.

The largest area for Jewish voters is New York and New Jersey. However, Obama is leading in both states by significant margins. However, in Florida, the race is very close, according to recent polls.

?In Florida, the Jewish vote does matter,? says Lee Miringoff, director at the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y. ?We?re talking about moving a few voters.?

The debate over foreign affairs resonated deeply in Florida for a number of reasons, says Professor MacManus.

?Florida has a large number of senior citizens who are concerned about the drop in respect for America as well as a large number of active-duty military and retired military,? she says.

But Romney's charge had been well documented before Monday, she adds. ?I don?t think that changed a lot of minds based on that exchange.????

On Tuesday, Ed Koch, former mayor of New York City and an influential voice within the American Jewish community, said he was satisfied with Obama?s support of Israel. In the past, Mr. Koch has been critical of Obama's Middle East policy, and Romney had been trying to get Koch's support.

?It would be very helpful if the President issues a public statement that the U.S. will respond militarily against Iran, if that country launches an attack upon Israel,? he wrote in a blog.

But he said he would do whatever he could do to reelect Obama, since he favors the president?s positions on domestic issues.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/V4EKReQG-F8/Can-Mitt-Romney-sway-Jewish-voters-with-apology-tour-quip

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GARRETT - RAMSEY'S ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT STOCKS ARE ...

Rulers, The following is from Dave Fisser, a retired pilot that sits on our Southwest Pilot's 401K committee. Dave wrote an article titled "Retirement Planning: Not Average Math" I copied some excerpts for you to consider. In particular, Dave Fisser took notice to some of the very things I had previously posted regarding Dave Ramsey's retirement advice. Again, I think Mr. Ramsey is excellent at personal finance. However, I believe he's doing a disservice to his followers regarding stock market expectations for retirement planning. I just think Mr. Ramsey and I need to meet so I can set him straight on some facts and introduce him to Rule #1 Investing! Here's some of Dave Fisser's article:

"AAII Journal quoted that a healthy 65-year-old had a 36.9 percent probability of reaching age 90 and a 17.6 percent probability of reaching age 95. But an Associated Press newspaper article quoted that for a healthy 65-year-old couple, chances are 63 percent that one would live until age 90 and there was a 36 percent chance of one of them living until age 95. In the Sunday Dallas Morning News business section, June 19, 2011, Dave Ramsey advised a reader, ?Build a nest egg that you can live off about 8 percent of. If you have $500,000 stashed away, then that would mean about $40,000 a year.? He justified that by saying, ?Throughout the history of the stock market, the Standard & Poor?s 500 has averaged between 11 percent and 12 percent.? He then stated, ?But if inflation runs about 3 or 4 percent, and you?re making 11 to 12 percent, you can pull out 8 percent and still leave enough in there to give yourself an inflation raise every year and not touch your nest egg.? Unfortunately, Dave Ramsey doesn?t offer any research to support his advice.

Consider the historical periods of poor annualized compound performance for the S&P 500 and the corresponding inflation rates: 1929-1948 S&P 3.1 percent and inflation of 1.7 percent; 1966-1981 S&P 6.0 percent and inflation of 7.0 percent; and the most recent period from 06/30/1996 to 06/30/2011 (Morningstar data) S&P 6.42 percent and inflation of 2.44 percent. One can see that the 8 percent spread between returns and inflation doesn?t always happen for long periods of time. What Ramsey may also have stated was arithmetic average returns rather than geometric or compounded returns. When I add the calendar year performances from 1926 to 2008 and the divide by 83, I get close to 12 percent. The differences are huge. Take $100 and subtract $50 and then add $50, the arithmetic sum is $100. Then take the same $100, lose 50 percent and then gain 50 percent and you?re left with $75, a notable difference due to compound math!

Another dubious assumption is that a retiree would have 100 percent of a retirement portfolio in stocks. Just think of the stress because of the volatility in August and September of this year, let alone most of 2000-2002 and the last half of 2008. For a second opinion, I consulted a recent update to the original Trinity Study, which used actual stock and bond calendar year returns (not averages) from 1926 through 2009. It showed a 100 percent stock portfolio, assuming an initial 8 percent withdrawal rate, and withdrawals adjusted for inflation had a 44 percent chance of lasting 30 years. So using averages says that the 8 percent withdrawal may work, but reality says it doesn?t always and who wants to be a part of the 56 percent who?ll run out of money? The Trinity study also stated that a 50 percent stock and 50 percent bond portfolio with a 4 percent initial withdrawal, increased for inflation, had a 96 percent chance of surviving 30 years. I?ll opt for the more conservative odds, with less volatility.

There are many critics of the 4 percent withdrawal rule as well, one being its attempt to support non-volatile spending with volatile investing. In other words, if the markets do real well, you may die with a whole bunch of money you could have spent somewhere early on. But who knows when emergencies may arise that call for the use of ?reserve? funds and who can predict market returns? I think the idea of ?non-volatile spending? is a misnomer as well. Can anyone, with any certainty, quote future heath care costs? It would also be nice to avoid volatile investing, but guarantees come at their own price as well.

This whole discussion is just the beginning of things to think about. It?s not to disparage Dave Ramsey or any other advisor, but retirees need to understand the assumptions of any retirement plan, whether the assumptions are reasonable, and then do the math as part of your homework. Average numbers don?t represent the worst-case scenarios. Effort spent now will make the retirement flight that much more enjoyable and stress free."

--------------- To Your Wealth! Garrett Hey...Read this: I am not an adviser. I am not licensed. I am not offering advice because I have no idea what might be right for you and I'm not trained in any way to know what is right for you. Anything I post is for my own general education and is probably not appropriate for you.

Source: http://philtown.typepad.com/phil_towns_blog/2012/10/garrett-ramseys-assumptions-about-stocks-are-wrong.html

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Prudent pause for energy cause

Motorists pump petrol at a Petronas station in Putrajaya in this December 8, 2009 file photograph. The Canadian government blocked the C$5.17 billion (3.2 billion pounds) acquisition of Progress Energy Resources Corp by Malaysian state oil company Petronas, raising questions about other, bigger bids and about Canada's willingness to let foreign investors in. (REUTERS/Bazuki Muhammad/Files)

Report an error

When life starts chaotically coming from every which way, it is often wise to take a deep breath, put the fast and furious on hold, and reassess the lay of the land.

The same goes with politics.

Industry Minister Christian Paradis' surprising decision late Friday to suddenly block the takeover of Canadian natural gas producer, Progress Energy Resources, by Malaysia's state-owned Petronas was one of those moments.

It was time to reassess, and sort out the chaos, and not run full tilt into a deal just to get it out of the way.

But let's not read into this that it is a harbinger of the Harper government suddenly deciding to get intransigently tough regarding foreign takeovers within Canada's oil and gas sectors.

It was merely a pause for the cause, and well timed.

Too much was happening at once.

Certain media, however, are already expressing "widespread worry" on behalf of pipeline interests that Paradis' rejection of Petronas' $5.9-billion deal signals a sudden protectionism, and that other mega-deal buyouts such as China's state-owned CNOOC's plans to take over Nexen, and Exxon Mobile's $3.1-billion desire for Celtic Exploration will be forever nixed.

It wasn't that long ago, however, that Prime Minister Stephen Harper gave a hint that he wanted a template built to manage foreign attempts to get its hands on our natural resources, especially when it comes to state-owned enterprises like CNOOC and Petronas.

As we opined here, in fact, the idea of letting China, as one example, get its mitts on Nexen without a little quid pro quo from the communists was not the kind of deal that should be endorsed.

And the Harper government appears to be listening.

There is likely no question that Paradis's excuse for not allowing the Progress deal -- that it fell short of Canada's "net benefit" requirements -- is a bit of a smoke screen to bide time, especially since he was particularly evasive in coughing up details as to the reasons why the deal was benefit-lacking.

But both Progress and Petronas have a 30-day window to appeal and, by then, the Harper government will hopefully have its template for foreign takeovers ready to unveil.

One that everyone will understand.

Source: http://www.winnipegsun.com/2012/10/22/prudent-pause-for-energy-cause

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Europe shares fall on nagging earnings worries

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